Israel’s tit-for-tat escalation with Hezbollah ‘is dangerous and risks all out-war’
The two main features of our coverage today have been the apparent breakdown of the ceasefire plan approved by the UN Security Council on Monday – and the exchange of missile attacks between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
The two strands are very much intertwined, a point made today by Mairav Zonszein, the senior Israel analyst with the International Crisis Group, a conflict resolution organisation.
In a piece for the New York Times, she references the fact that Israeli officials have repeatedly insisted the country cannot stop the war in Gaza, “not just because Hamas is still not entirely defeated, but because of what it means for Israel’s power projection in the region”, specifically in relation to Hezbollah and Iran.
As she says, a number of Israeli officials think another war with Hezbollah is “a matter of time”, while far-right politicians have begun calling for an invasion of Lebanon.
“But the reality on the ground tells a different story,” she writes.
“The military, which is accustomed to short wars, seems fatigued – as is the Israeli public, which wants a new government. And if Israel has not been able to dismantle Hamas, a much smaller and less formidable adversary, after eight months of war and a nearly 17-year blockade of Gaza, what makes Israelis think that they can defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon, even putting aside the high price in soldier and civilian lives?
“Continuing on the current trajectory of escalating tit-for-tat attacks is also dangerous, not just because of what Hezbollah is learning, but also because the risk of all-out war, even if no one wants one, is constantly rising because of miscalculations in the expanding battlefield and potency of the weapons used.”